Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and the Question of Floors and Ceilings
Why Mobley, and not Cade, could be the Draft's most elite prospect.
Cade Cunningham is going to be the first overall pick. This, in the mind of the Pistons’ organization or whomever decides to draft him, has been set in stone likely since the AP All American led the most talented High School team in a generation to an undefeated season. Cunningham’s game feels complete. The 6’8 point guard presents a combination of shooting, ball handling, and vision that seems generational at that kind of size. Couple that with intangibles that make him a natural leader at any level and you’ve got–at worst–a larger, more imposing, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Still, Cunningham isn’t the best prospect in this draft.
Evan Mobley, if the situation is correct, presents upside at the big spot that we haven’t seen in nearly a decade. In an era that is decidedly defined by the pick-and-roll, nobody is as dangerous both offensively and defensively as Mobley. A fluid three point shooter at USC, and as switchable as every Wes Anderson movie ever made, Mobley–more than any other player in this class–embodies the court warping, position-less threat that every NBA team is searching for. Tapping into Mobley’s potential, however, feels like a much taller task than that of Cunningham’s.
That being said, using the number one pick on a player who presents a more assured floor but a decidedly lower ceiling doesn’t feel like the most intelligent draft strategy–especially for a team who just won 20 games. The truth is, a look at Cunningham’s most glaring weakness reveals a projection that could leave the Pistons’ front office shaking their head if they really decide to pass on the So-Cal 7-footer.
See, for all of Cade’s exploits and the obviously well rounded nature of his game, his struggles with turnovers in isolation and his very real inability to create consistent separation, are weaknesses that could be problematic at the next level.
If Cunningham really is to be a franchise cornerstone for the Pistons, (which, in a draft like this, is the natural conclusion) then his place as the team’s primary ball handler needs to be assured. The thing is, I don’t think Cunningham could really be elite at the next level as the de-facto guy in Pick-and-Roll and Isolation.
His ball-handling remains rather lackluster; he’s loose off the dribble and doesn’t really display any significant creativity off the bounce. When you couple that with mediocre athletic ability, you start to understand why Cade struggled breaking down defenders one-on-one even in an underwhelming Big 12. Some of these issues were masked by Cunningham’s massive frame, at a legit 6’8 with a 7’ wingspan, he was able to see over some of the shorter defenders who guarded him and could compensate for his lack of burst with vision and size that won’t be available in the NBA.
Of all high-major players who were asked to shoulder an offensive load, (and demonstrated a Usage Rate at or greater than 25%) Cade had the 12th worst Turnover Percentage in the country. 22% of the proverbial number one pick’s possessions ended in a turnover, a number that actually most closely resembles projected lottery picks Scottie Barnes and Keon Johnson’s rates at FSU and Tennessee respectively. A fact that scares you when you realize that both Barnes and Johnson have been criticized for their carelessness with the ball, whereas Cunningham has been celebrated.
It’s not all bad though. Much has been made about Cunningham’s horrible supporting cast at Oklahoma State and while I think some of that might have been a little over-blown, (Avery Anderson III, for his part, is going to be a star) it’s worth mentioning that Cunningham was often playing with guys who didn’t see the floor at the pace that he did. In spite that, he still took them to a Top 25 finish, and every accolade he garnered this season is obviously well deserved.
It’s not that Cunningham is a bad prospect by any stretch. Hell, he could end up making me look like a fool six months from now when the Pistons’ offense suddenly comes back to life. In spite that, the star-potential that Evan Mobley provides, particularly on the defensive end, feels generational.
Few 7-footers are as graceful as Mobley is, and an even fewer demonstrate the necessary patience and understanding of driving angles required to be a lock-down defender on the perimeter. Often during USC’s games, their P&R defense actually benefitted from switches where Mobley was able to swarm the opposing guard and limit any real offensive action.
On top of this, the 19-year is incredibly disciplined as a rim protector, (averaging 1.8 FPG) and was the anchor to a USC defense that was the eighth best in the country. Watching Mobley defend is like watching a hurricane. He obliterates everything in his wake. He doesn’t submit to traditional matchup coverage and can–in a single possession– guard every player on the court, shattering any offensive action the opposing team was hoping to run.
To be blunt, as a big, Mobley is the best defensive prospect the league has encountered since Anthony Davis.
His struggles, unlike Cade’s, feel more fixable. Mobley’s thin and wiry frame often left him getting buried by larger defenders. To become the elite rim-protector that his potential allows, Mobley needs to add weight in order to better absorb the inevitable contact that will come from the NBA’s most physically elite. But contemporary training regimens have shown that adding weight is more than possible in the modern era.
Some scouts seem worried about Mobley’s shooting, but I wouldn’t concede so easily to those kinds of doubts. Yes, Mobley only shot 30% from 3 and 69% from the line (nice), but his mechanics are fluid and the elite balance and low center of gravity that he demonstrates on the defensive end should make his transition to becoming a better shooter relatively easy.
Look, assessing a prospect’s potential is almost always impossible, and there’s not one statistic that can really pinpoint what a player is going to become. But if I can leave you with one number–however anecdotal–that puts Mobley’s season into perspective, it’s this: over the last decade, there have been only two 7-footers that registered an Offensive Box Plus/Minus score of above 7 and Defensive BPM of above 5;
Evan Mobley.
Anthony Davis.
It’s not a stretch to think that Mobley could become an all-world prospect. Honestly, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he could be one of the NBA’s best defenders from day one. Adding weight to his frame will be a project, but let’s not kid ourselves, because I can think of at least one Greek prospect who needed to add weight to his frame before becoming the NBA’s most feared super-human, and I think he turned out alright.
Great write up Rayyan!