Luka Doncic Falls Short of Ultimate Goal, but The Legend Continues to Grow
Luka Doncic helped turn this Slovenia team into a freight train, all the while accumulating records and reshaping our understanding of Olympic Basketball.
Five years ago, at only 16 years old, Luka Doncic was tasked with a choice. The budding superstar could decide to stay within the Slovenian Federation and represent his county of only 2 million in basketball competition, or leave for nearby Spain–joining the European powerhouse and etching his name into the mantle of the many Spaniard that came before him.
Already–at the age when even the most elite high school prospects were still likely worried about math class or, I don’t know, acne–Doncic’s name was being mentioned alongside some of Slovenia’s greatest. Goran Dragic, in the midst of another breakout year with the Miami Heat, couldn’t help but gush at Luka’s wizardry;
“He is only 16 and he’s making history. He’s got quality and a really decent size for his age. I’m looking forward to play with him. He has a lot of passion for this game and that’s all he needs. Everything else will come.”
Soon after Dragic’s comments, Doncic would do what many of his counterparts could not. Snubbing the Spanish Federation and opting instead to represent the little country that raised him. Then, at only 17, Doncic led Slovenia to their first ever European Championship; slaying the aging monoliths of Europe to the tune of 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. Dragic may have been the tournament’s MVP, but everybody in attendance understood that the future Maverick was like nothing anybody had seen before.
That tournament feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, Doncic has firmly established himself as one of the world’s premiere players; dominating the NBA in ways that few could have imagined.
Still though, at only 22, Luka found himself in a familiar setting. The Slovenian team, this time without Goran Dragic and in their first `Olympic tournament ever, were sat in a semi-final matchup staring down the barrel of a French team that had already beaten the United States.
Ultimately, the challenge proved too steep for the 22-year old prodigy. France’s players kept coming in waves, and the realities of Slovenia’s depth–or lack thereof–became brutally clear. Luka looked fatigued, many of his signature step-backs falling short and his body language slowly deteriorating until the youngster was collapsed on the bench, face buried in his towel.
Doncic finished with 16 points, 18 assists, and 10 rebounds. The first Olympic triple double since LeBron James in 2012 and the second most assists ever recorded in an Olympic game. Luka will be criticized for his performance–in some sense, rightfully so–but it’s now clear that Doncic has entered the rarified pantheon of greats, where even historic achievements can bring about criticism.
Figuring out how Doncic managed these historic spectacles is a complicated question in itself.
For Slovenia coach Aleksander Sekulic, it’s all about Luka’s magic, “When you have Luka, it’s easy. Everything’s easy. He’s not coming here to show off. He’s coming here to help the team, first of all. He came here to have [fun] on the court, to have fun with the guys on the court, and you’re here to use him as much as possible, to use his — let’s say — magic.”
This magic that Sekulic is referring to could take a million forms. Doncic’s impact, particularly on the offensive end, is almost literally immeasurable. He has a level of patience that allows him to dictate tempo, he can beat just about any defender he wants, and his touch both around the rim and from distance make him the most potent scoring threat in Tokyo.
That’s not an exaggeration, Doncic leads the field in scoring with 121 total points. That, despite facing constant double-teams, and all the while leading the Olympic’s most high-octane offense. If Luka maintains this kind of production (something that is going to be necessary given Slovenia’s upcoming matchup with Australia), it would be the largest scoring output by a player in 25 years. Couple that with his 10 rebound and 10 assist per game average, and his performance would be the single greatest statistical accomplishment the Olympics has ever seen.
Frankly, it’s not even close. Doncic is averaging a triple-double in a competition that has only seen three triple-doubles in its 85 year existence. It’s beyond generational, it’s once in a life-time.
But, while I admit that kind of statistical output is engaging, it’s not enough to cement a legacy. What is enough, however, is the way Slovenia has been playing. Leading the field in Points Per Game, the Slovenians have created a core around Doncic that takes advantage of his most exceptional trait; his magnetism.
Magnetism may seem like some meaningless buzz-word, but it’s not. It’s genuinely the best way to describe how defenses react to Luka. Doncic’s gifted ability to break down his initial defender means that as soon as he touches the ball, every player on the opposing team has his eyes turned towards him.
Notice here, as soon as Luka puts the ball to the floor, every German player turns their head and loses sight of their defender. In response, Doncic makes an easy read to a shooter in the show spot and Edo Muric makes them pay:
FIBA play shouldn’t work like this. They aren’t set up for this kind of isolation domination. Even Doncic himself has been clear about how much harder it is scoring in Europe than the NBA, “Here in the NBA, it’s easier to score compared to Europe, of course. In Europe, the court is smaller, and here there is the defensive three seconds rule. I think it’s easier to score here.”
But I think our current reality is that even Luka defies the logic he initially set for himself. The best explanation I can provide for Luka’s dominance is that as good as he is at breaking down that initial defender, his ability break down help defense (or the second line), is even more rare.
Luka can get to the paint at will. But once there, he has a remarkable ability to almost always make the correct read. This may sound simple, but in the context of FIBA basketball, where the paint is heavily clogged and an offensive player could easily see four or even five defenders, it’s a priceless skill. It’s why most European offenses are structured around rigid off-ball movement that looks to shift the second line and create very specific shots on the court. The alternative–isolation play–allows help defenses to get set and limits the availability of easy layups.
Even some of basketball’s greatest scorers–say, Kevin Durant–struggle at these very reads. Watch here as Dellavedova notices Durant driving and leaves his matchup alone in the corner. Delly literally waits in the paint for KD’s drive, and Durant is forced to alter his shot as a consequence of the increased help. That change allows Thybulle to get a block and Australia takes the ball the other way.
Durant made the wrong read. Dellavedova’s initial matchup, Zach LaVine, is wide open in the corner. As is Jayson Tatum at the top of the key. Still, it’s a read that KD rarely sees in the much more spaced-out NBA game; where that play likely results in some kind of finish at the rim. In contrast, observe what Doncic does when faced with a similar clogged position:
Come. On.
Yes, I acknowledge it was more of a transition situation and yes, the help wasn’t as committed as in Durant’s circumstance, but do you see how special that is. Doncic is unfazed by the help defense and often, like we see here, the read he makes isn’t even the most obvious one–it’s just the one that leads to the best shot.
Passing isn’t even the only way he breaks down this kind of over-commitment. Sometimes, it’s as simple as seeing the second line form and rising for a jump-shot before ever even meeting it:
Doncic sees Bonga and Saibou form a wall and instead of barreling headfirst into it, he settles for a step-back. It’s a remarkably difficult shot that ends up looking like a lay-up for the 22 year-old phenom.
Truly, I still can’t wrap my head around it. Just yesterday, I wrote about how the United States’ adherence to clogged Pick & Roll action and Isolation play would be their downfall. Yet I keep shuffling through these games and Doncic keeps defying all that makes sense.
There have been players who have been able to break down their initial defender like this before and there have been players who have been able to make reads at the second-line like this before.
Never both. At least not in the Olympics.
For that reason, Doncic requires the attention of all five players on the defensive end. For that reason, he forces an unheard of level of commitment from help-side defense and for that exact reason he’s taken a Slovenia team with one other active NBA player and turned them into the Olympic’s best offense.
Surround him with shooters and let them run. The formula is simple. The secret ingredient, however, is the magic that Sekulic so admiringly describes. And nobody else has it.
Doncic ultimately failed in his pursuit of a Gold Medal. Still, this kind of performance shouldn’t be taken for granted. Slovenia is a country with a population the same size as Nebraska’s. They’ve never been on this stage, yet they captured the hearts of millions of fans and were a lay-up away from the Gold Medal game.
Luka is only 22. It cannot be stated and re-stated enough. To this point he is the most accomplished 22-year old basketball has ever seen. But even with that reality, I’m sure this loss in particular stings deeply for the young superstar. But he will back, Manu Ginobili didn’t win the Gold until he was 27, and with 5 more years of NBA and International experience awaiting him, who knows what will come next.
Until then, I think we just appreciate the magic.